Trump's Iran War: Without Strategy, There Is No Path to Victory
The American president misread his adversary and failed to define clear parameters for winning. The result is an endless cycle of escalation and negotiation, while Iran solidifies its position in Hormuz
A clear pattern has emerged in the ongoing saga between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump promises escalation, feels the pressure on oil prices, and backs off in the hope of carving out a deal and declaring victory.
The first days of August delivered the latest iteration of this cycle: a planned joint American-Israeli attack on Iran was cancelled; then, Trump declared that an agreement with Tehran was imminent. Predictably, Tehran denied that talks with Washington were taking place at all, only acknowledging its dialogue with Oman over a temporary safe route through the Strait of Hormuz.
The stark reality is that Trump has started a war he is seemingly unwilling, and perhaps unable, to finish through military force alone. It's a war without strategic aims or direction.
Two key failures underpin this cycle. The first is that Trump has misread his adversary. He negotiates as though Tehran is ready to make a deal, even at the cost of losing its leverage over Hormuz. In reality, Iran has no plans to do so.
Decision-makers who believe they have already lost will often take greater risks to recover their losses. Iran now firmly inhabits this mindset and considers escalation via targeted attacks on commercial shipping in Hormuz as a rational course of action.
A regime that has absorbed the assassination of its Supreme Leader, the degradation of its proxy network and the imposition of tough sanctions is not searching for an off-ramp. The only agreement it will accept is one that makes it materially richer and recognizes its control over Hormuz, converting the leverage it has demonstrated into a permanent cash cow.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said as much in recent days, urging Washington to "remain committed" to the June memorandum of understanding. On Monday, Tehran announced it will not reopen the strait without compensation for war damages, a demand Trump met with counter-demands of his own, while conceding that the U.S. is only "semi-negotiating" with Iran.
- Targeted by massive firepower, Iran's leadership is weaker – but more tenacious Amos Harel
- Trump promised to open Hormuz, but it's Iran that's still calling the shots Ksenia Svetlova
- The fight for Hormuz shows how far U.S.-Iran war strayed from its original goals Zvi Bar'el
However, Tehran's ambitions don't stop at the strait. Iran's foreign ministry called on the international community to take "immediate and effective action to end Israel's impunity" on Gaza. This signals that any settlement must, in Tehran's view, also constrain Israel, placing Jerusalem in an impossible position.
The second failure is that Trump hasn't clearly defined what victory means in this conflict. While U.S. forces have struck thousands of Iranian targets, revived a naval blockade on Tehran and demonstrated their formidable capability, they lack a coherent strategy. Capability without a definition of victory produces exactly what we have watched for weeks: tit-for-tat strikes that do not move the needle.
As long as these underlying contradictions and pressure points remain unaddressed, regional stability ceases to be a realistic outcome. The MoU was nothing more than a ceasefire with a built-in detonator that continuously goes off with each round of escalation.
Over the last few months, what Trump has actually created is not a path to peace or victory, but the perfect conditions for perpetual war. The crisis is already metastasizing. Each period of de-escalation restores the leverage Iran will use to force the next crisis and deepens the regime's sense of resolve. This, in turn, leads it to take further risks.
A war without strategic aims can't be won, and a peace that rewards the adversary's leverage can never hold. Until one of those two failures is corrected, the negotiating terrain will continue to be defined by Iran.
Dr Ben Soodavar is a lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, where he teaches international relations.